Polymarket accelerates US rollout amid mounting state-level resistance

The company, which recently secured a CFTC-cleared pathway, has begun offering a limited range of sports and event contracts to US users under strict supervisory conditions.

The launch follows sustained growth offshore, where Polymarket has processed billions in notional volume during the past year. Its return to the US is designed to capture rising interest from younger, market-aware users who now treat event-contracts as instruments for speculation, sentiment-tracking and hedging.

“Prediction markets are now mainstream financial tools,” a Polymarket spokesperson said at the weekend, arguing that structured event contracts provide “clearer probabilities than conventional opinion polling.”

However, Polymarket’s timing is complicated by rapid shifts in the US regulatory climate. Last week the Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection issued cease-and-desist orders to Kalshi, Robinhood Derivatives and Crypto.com, deeming their sports-related event contracts illegal gambling rather than federally regulated derivatives.

Although Polymarket was not named, the logic of the order applies broadly: sports outcomes, in the eyes of several states, fall squarely within betting legislation.

Connecticut’s move follows similar actions in Nevada, Arizona and New York, each asserting that federal derivatives classification does not supersede state gambling law. Polymarket may therefore find that even with a federally compliant structure, it must navigate state-by-state constraints, geo-fencing and product segmentation.

Despite this tension, investor sentiment in the sector remains robust. Recent market data indicates that prediction-market turnover across leading platforms surpassed US$27 billion this year, reflecting growing appetite for tradable views on elections, macro data and sporting outcomes. Polymarket appears to be positioning itself as the foremost retail-facing venue in this space, integrating with widely used tooling and expanding into US jurisdictions with a cautious but aggressive roadmap.

The company’s challenge now is strategic: how to scale a regulated prediction-market business in a country where each state may hold a different opinion on what constitutes a bet. If Polymarket succeeds in building compliant liquidity without losing its rapid-execution appeal, it may emerge as the template for future event-trading markets. If state-level pressure intensifies, however, operators may shift focus to offshore users, macroeconomic contracts and non-sports categories less likely to be construed as gambling.